Tony Abbott's "knightmare" start to 2015 could eventually cost him the prime ministership but his political failure would come at a quantifiable price for Barnaby Joyce: $700,000.
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The Agriculture Minister has boldly "bet his house" on Mr Abbott leading the government into the next election during an interview with the ABC.
According to title deeds and transfer documents, that means he is willing to stake $700,000 on the durability of Mr Abbott's leadership.
Documents show that Mr Joyce and his wife Natalie paid $700,000 in January last year for their family home on an acreage block south east of Tamworth.
Aerial maps contained on a NSW government database show Mr Joyce would be putting an in-ground pool, along with the family home, on the line if he was to bet his house on Mr Abbott.
He told ABC: "I will put my money on it … I will put my house on it that at the next election, there will be so many other things to talk about rather than something that happened at the Australia Day Awards a year ago."
But pushed on whether he would put his house on Mr Abbott leading the Coalition at the next election, he said: "Yes".
According to odds issued this week by online bookie Sportsbet, Mr Joyce could get $2.00 on Mr Abbott not facing a leadership challenge before the 2016 election. That would double his $700,000 stake to $1.4 million.
Before he made Prince Philip a knight, Mr Abbott was paying $1.65 not to face a spill. That price has drifted significantly from $1.20 in December, representing the growing uncertainty about his longevity in the top job.
The odds on Julie Bishop ($2.10) and Malcolm Turnbull ($3) to become the next leader of Liberal Party have narrowed since Mr Abbott's widely-ridiculed "captain's pick" on an Australia Day honour for the ageing British royal.
Mr Joyce's confidence has surprised some in Coalition ranks who are actively weighing up contingency plans if Mr Abbott cannot lift the government out of the doldrums in the polls.
When asked about his future, Mr Abbott on Friday said he would "absolutely" lead the the Coalition to the next election.
National Party members like Mr Joyce do not get a say in the Liberal leadership and are therefore not generally privy to factional manoeuvrings inside the party.
If Mr Joyce lost his Tamworth home, the family could move four hours west to a remote block they own in the Pilliga scrub.
In 2013, Fairfax Media revealed the Joyces had paid $230,000 in 2006 for a block in Gwabegar before paying a further $342,000 in 2008 for an adjoining block to make a 2400 acre property.
Mr Joyce has referred to it as his sheep and cattle station and in 2013 denied local rumour that he had bought it to cash in on the coal seam gas boom that was being predicted for the Pilliga ten years ago.
"My motivation was plain and simple - it was what I could afford. I came from the land and I want to go back to the land after politics," Mr Joyce said.
The federal register of members' interests shows that the Joyces also own a commercial property in St George Queensland, their former home town, which is rented.
